Possible scenario
Attack Attempt
20% Chance
The threat moves from intelligence warning to a visible violent incident or attempted attack. Even if Tusk survives, a confirmed attempt against a sitting NATO prime minister would be treated as a material geopolitical escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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