Possible scenario
Kyiv Grid Collapse
38% Chance
Russian strikes on TPP-5 and TPP-6 cause a prolonged failure of district heating, water pumping, and metro power in large parts of Kyiv. The city and national government prioritize hospitals, command centers, and shelters while civilians are urged to relocate before freezing conditions deepen.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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