Possible scenario
Emergency Stabilization
30% Chance
Ukraine prevents Kyiv from becoming uninhabitable by rerouting power, importing mobile generation, and protecting repair crews. The city still faces hardship, but emergency measures keep core municipal services functioning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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