Possible scenario
Defaults Accelerate
−2.6%
A growing share of CCC borrowers runs out of refinancing options and shifts to distressed exchanges, Chapter 11 filings, or creditor-led liability-management transactions. This scenario is plausible because the timeline shows several consecutive signs of deepening stress in the lowest-rated credit tier.
What it moves
- Finance−3.1%
- Consumer Services−2.8%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.