Possible scenario
Waiver Survives Fight
20% Chance
The White House holds firm that the 60-day waiver is needed for negotiations, and House leadership ultimately decides not to sacrifice the Pentagon bill. This outcome keeps Russian diesel relief intact and reduces immediate legislative risk, though it leaves GOP divisions visible.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.