Possible scenario
GOP Revolt Delays Bill
25% Chance
Hardline Republicans decide that the 60-day waiver is too large a concession to Moscow and withhold support for the Pentagon bill rule. Johnson is forced to delay floor action, creating a short-lived but visible overhang for defense appropriations and contractors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.3%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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