Possible scenario
Negotiated Transition Opens
27% Chance
Maduro's detention and prosecution could accelerate negotiations among Washington, Venezuelan opposition figures, and remaining power brokers in Caracas. This would not immediately resolve Venezuela's crisis, but it could reduce policy uncertainty around sanctions and energy licenses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- CVX+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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