Possible scenario
Caracas Retaliates
22% Chance
Hardliners in Caracas could respond to the charges with diplomatic retaliation, new detentions, or threats against U.S.-linked energy operations. This is less likely than a controlled legal process, but it is the clearest path to near-term market effects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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