Routine Reassignment

The most likely outcome is a standard federal-court reassignment after the judge’s death, with the indictment and prior rulings largely intact. Because the previous judge had already upheld the $400,000 Polymarket indictment, the new judge is likely to treat the record as procedurally stable unless the defense identifies a specific error.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.