Possible scenario
Narrow Sanctions Hold
45% Chance
The Trump administration keeps the measures focused on ICC officials tied directly to the Netanyahu and Gallant warrants. European governments protest, but the dispute remains primarily legal and diplomatic rather than economic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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