Possible scenario
Court Defies Washington
20% Chance
The ICC refuses to alter the warrants and argues that U.S. sanctions do not affect obligations of Rome Statute members. The dispute remains unresolved, increasing the chance that Netanyahu limits travel to ICC member states.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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