Possible scenario
Sustained Supply Disruption
25% Chance
Damage assessments show that Abqaiq processing capacity is impaired beyond initial expectations. The market prices a multi-day to multi-week supply disruption from the world's most important oil-processing hub.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
- Consumer Services -2.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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