Possible scenario
Regional Military Escalation
20% Chance
Riyadh concludes that repeated attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais require military retaliation or expanded air-defense operations. Markets move from pricing an oil outage to pricing broader Middle East escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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