Waiver Restores Access

The most likely de-escalatory path is a Pentagon-brokered clarification or contract addendum that permits specified Ukrainian military drone uses while preserving SpaceX's formal limits on offensive employment. This would align with the 2023 Pentagon funding framework and avoid a direct rupture between SpaceX, Washington, and Kyiv.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.