Possible scenario
Restrictions Persist
25% Chance
SpaceX maintains the speed-based limit, citing terms of service, export-control risk, or policy objections to weaponized use. Ukraine adapts, but near-term battlefield drone effectiveness is reduced, especially for high-speed strike and reconnaissance systems near the front.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology -0.2%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
Tickers
- -4.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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