Possible scenario
Retaliation Remains Contained
45% Chance
Russia's attack is treated by both sides as a retaliatory escalation after Ukraine's drone strike on a Moscow refinery, but it does not immediately halt Black Sea shipping. Ukraine reroutes air defenses and repairs fuel-storage capacity while insurers and shippers price in a modest risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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