Possible scenario
Black Sea Disruption Deepens
25% Chance
Russia follows the initial barrage with additional strikes on Odesa, Chornomorsk or Danube logistics, causing insurers and shipowners to reassess Black Sea voyages. Ukraine can still export, but volumes fall and freight costs rise sharply over the next few days.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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