Possible scenario
Contained Strike Cycle
45% Chance
Russia continues retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy and industrial sites, but the damage remains geographically limited. Ukraine's air defenses and grid repair crews prevent a nationwide power crisis, while both sides keep attacks below a threshold that would force a major NATO response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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