Possible scenario
Ukrainian Energy Counterstrikes
25% Chance
Kyiv responds to Russian strikes by intensifying attacks on Russian refineries, fuel depots, and logistics nodes. The main market channel is a modest rise in oil risk premia rather than a broad financial shock, unless refinery damage becomes severe.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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