Possible scenario
Sustained Drone Attrition
45% Chance
Russia maintains a high-tempo drone campaign against Kyiv and regional energy infrastructure, using mass launches to exhaust Ukrainian interceptors. This is the base case because Moscow has already shifted toward all-day attacks and has signaled retaliation after strikes on Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Utilities -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.