Possible scenario
Broader Escalation Risk
18% Chance
Russia expands the campaign from Kyiv and the power grid toward logistics corridors, Danube ports, or sites near NATO borders. This remains less likely than continued attrition, but the scale of the weekly attack raises the risk of miscalculation or cross-border incidents.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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