Possible scenario
Policy Relief Arrives
25% Chance
Importing governments respond quickly to the Petronas warning by coordinating demand restraint, swaps and credit support for essential cargoes. Prices remain high but pull back from crisis levels as buyers avoid a disorderly bidding war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.6%
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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