Possible scenario
Managed Winter Squeeze
35% Chance
LNG prices remain in the $40-$45 range as Qatar delays and cancelled South Asian cargoes keep the market tight, but governments and utilities avoid outright panic buying. Europe, Japan, South Korea and China rely on storage, demand curbs and portfolio cargo swaps to bridge the winter peak.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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