Possible scenario
Localized Closure Persists
35% Chance
The closure stays concentrated on the Sharara-to-Zawiya system, keeping roughly 200,000 barrels per day offline without spreading to other Libyan fields. This would support crude prices but remain too small to generate a broad market shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- TTE-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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