Possible scenario
Broader Libyan Disruption
15% Chance
The pipeline closure becomes part of a wider political or security confrontation affecting additional western Libyan oil infrastructure. This is less likely, but Libya's divided institutions and prior shutdowns make escalation a credible tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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