Possible scenario
Sumy Front Escalates
25% Chance
The school strike proves to be part of a broader Russian effort to pressure Sumy Oblast after months of troop concentration near the border. Moscow increases glide-bomb, artillery, and drone attacks to force Ukrainian redeployments from eastern fronts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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