Possible scenario
Localized Strike Pattern
45% Chance
Russia continues using guided bombs and drones against civilian infrastructure near the Sumy border without immediately opening a larger ground assault. Ukraine disperses classes, moves children to remote learning, and prioritizes local air-defense coverage, but the front line remains broadly stable.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+0.2%
- LMT+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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