Phased Full Takeover

Lufthansa converts its winning minority bid into a negotiated path to full ownership of TAP, likely through a phased structure that gives Portugal political cover and preserves employment commitments. This is the most likely outcome because Lufthansa has strategic reasons to secure TAP’s Brazil, Africa and Lisbon hub exposure after winning the initial process.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.