Possible scenario
Minority Deal Preserved
28% Chance
Portugal and Lufthansa continue with the original minority transaction while postponing or limiting any path to total ownership. This outcome is plausible because Lisbon may want Lufthansa capital and network integration without immediately surrendering full control of a national carrier.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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