Possible scenario
Crackdown Broadens
20% Chance
The terrorism case could become a broader campaign against independent media, civil society, and legal defenders. This is less likely than a contained prosecution, but torture allegations and collective charges raise the risk of escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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