Possible scenario
Prosecution Drags On
45% Chance
The most likely path is a prolonged national-security case managed by Egypt's State Security Prosecution, with terrorism charges used to justify pretrial detention. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's government has repeatedly used this playbook against journalists and opposition figures while limiting outside scrutiny.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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