Possible scenario
Control Remains Unclear
18% Chance
The RNC’s late money keeps multiple races within recount range, delaying a clear outcome for days or weeks. Both parties claim plausible paths to 218 seats while election lawyers and state canvassing boards become central.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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