Possible scenario
Democrats Retake House
38% Chance
The RNC transfer helps vulnerable Republicans buy late advertising, but it does not fully offset an unfavorable House map and Democratic targeting of 66 GOP-held seats. Hakeem Jeffries becomes the likely next speaker as Democrats gain a narrow majority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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