Possible scenario
Managed Oversight Regime
30% Chance
Trump keeps the June AI oversight order intact but tones down the personal confrontation with Amodei. The administration moves toward a formal review process that creates compliance costs without blocking commercial model development.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services +0.5%
Tickers
- META-0.7%
- MSFT-0.4%
- AMZN+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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