Possible scenario
Targeted U.S. Sanctions
25% Chance
The Biden administration or its successor responds with new sanctions against named settlers, outposts, or affiliated nonprofits. The measure would be consistent with the February 2024 precedent and the direct injury of a U.S. journalist raises the political cost of inaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.