Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
40% Chance
Washington issues a sharp protest but stops short of major new measures, while Israel promises an inquiry into the attack on the U.S. journalist. This is the most likely path because prior U.S. responses to settler violence have favored targeted pressure over a broad rupture with Israel.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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