Possible scenario
Kremlin Escalates Blame
25% Chance
Moscow uses the hack to intensify accusations against Ukraine and Western intelligence services. The most likely consequence is a domestic security response rather than immediate military escalation, but the rhetoric keeps geopolitical risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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