Possible scenario
Contained Certification
45% Chance
Russian authorities treat the voter-list hack as a manageable disruption and move quickly to validate the parliamentary vote. This is the base case because the Kremlin has strong incentives to avoid any impression that the election result was materially compromised.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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