Possible scenario
Hoax Wave Subsides
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that most 'Bloody Friday' threats are determined to be copycat hoaxes after the sweep of roughly 10,000 schools. Detentions, parental cooperation, and visible police patrols reduce the immediate incentive for more threats.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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