Possible scenario
Copycat Violence Escalates
25% Chance
A smaller but still material risk is that the publicity around the two recent stabbings encourages another disturbed student or imitator to act. Police presence lowers the probability of mass casualties, but cannot eliminate attacks inside or near schools.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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