Possible scenario
Protests Spread
26% Chance
The Gosport incident becomes a rallying point for anti-immigration groups already active after the collapse of the UK-France exchange deal. Police forces in Hampshire, Kent and Sussex prepare for copycat protests around ports, hotels and temporary accommodation sites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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