Possible scenario
Harder Border Policy
20% Chance
The government responds to the Gosport standoff and the scrapped UK-France exchange deal by accelerating tougher border and accommodation measures. This could include more detention capacity, faster removals processing and expanded use of secure or semi-secure sites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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