Possible scenario
Democratic Upset
22% Chance
The DCCC’s decision to spend is validated by late movement among suburban independents and a durable Democratic early-vote advantage. A Turner loss would be interpreted nationally as evidence of a strong Democratic House environment, not just a local candidate failure.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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