Possible scenario
Joint Air Campaign
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia and Egypt launch coordinated strikes on Houthi missile, drone, and radar facilities after concluding that deterrence requires visible retaliation. The campaign is still geographically focused on Yemen, but it marks Egypt’s most direct military role in the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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