Possible scenario
Contained Defensive Deployment
45% Chance
Egypt sends air-defense, intelligence, engineering, and base-protection units to Saudi Arabia without immediately opening a new front in Yemen. Cairo and Riyadh frame the mission as defensive after the Houthi airport strike, while Washington and Gulf governments work to prevent direct escalation with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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