Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
Negotiations fail and Beijing proceeds with countermeasures against European semiconductor-equipment supply chains. This would represent a clear escalation from negotiation to retaliation, but still mainly an industry-specific shock.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.9%
- Industrials -1.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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