Possible scenario
Narrow Interim Deal
25% Chance
Negotiators avoid a rupture but do not complete a full sanctions swap. The result is a limited carve-out for maintenance, spare parts, or pre-existing contracts, while both sides keep broader sanctions threats in reserve.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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