Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalation
20% Chance
Iran-linked forces or miscalculation at sea turn the blockade into a broader security crisis, and shipowners pull back from the Gulf. Fertilizer and energy flows tighten together, making the UN's Asia-Africa food warning a near-term market stress event rather than a diplomatic appeal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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