Possible scenario
Managed Disruption
30% Chance
Hormuz remains partially blocked, but naval deconfliction, war-risk insurance facilities, and emergency aid prevent a full food-supply rupture. Fertilizer and food inputs move irregularly, keeping prices high and shortages concentrated in import-dependent Asian and African economies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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