Possible scenario
Guardrails Preserve Tariffs
30% Chance
The administration clarifies that welcoming plants does not mean open market access. CFIUS reviews, software restrictions, battery sourcing rules, and subsidy exclusions keep Chinese production plans slow and costly.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Tickers
- F+1.5%
- GMM.USD+1.5%
- STLA+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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